摩根士丹利的中金迷局 / Chinese aims of Morgan Stanley are hit by managers

摩根士丹利的中金迷局 / Chinese aims of Morgan Stanley are Hit by Managers
作者：英国《金融时报》汉妮•桑德尔（Henny Sender） 2008-04-30

今年1月，当中金公司(CICC)在豪华的曼谷素可泰酒店(Sukhothai Hotel)召开季度董事会时，会上的气氛远远谈不上融洽。
When CICC, the Chinese investment bank part-owned by Morgan Stanley of the US, held its quarterly board meeting in the opulent Sukhothai Hotel in Bangkok in January, the mood was far from collegial.

美国投行摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)持有中金34%股权，它决意将股权出售。目前，该投行正遭受与美国次贷危机相关的逾90亿美元减记。而且只有当摩根士丹利出售中金股权后，中国监管机构才会允许它在华进一步开拓新的业务；另外，摩根士丹利也需要一切可能得到的现金。与此同时，以中国前国务院总理朱镕基之子朱云来(Levin Zhu)为首的中金公司中方管理层，则决定在与摩根士丹利分手前达成最有利的交易。
Morgan Stanley, reeling from more than $9bn (£4.5bn, €5.8bn) in write-offs related to America's subprime loans fiasco, was determined to sell its 34 per cent stake. Only when it rid itself of CICC would Beijing regulators allow it to undertake further initiatives in China and, besides, it needed all the cash it could get. At the same time, the Chinese management of CICC – headed by Levin Zhu, son of Zhu Rongji, the former prime minister – was determined to cut the best deal before severing the connection.

中金前雇员、现任里昂证券亚洲分部(CLSA)的分析师侯伟(Fraser Howie)表示，自1995年中金公司在北京钓鱼台国宾馆宣布成立以来，“中金公司一直是中国自身的一个缩影。”“它是观察中国的一个镜头”。在中国，将商业和政治区分开，通常是不太可能的。
Since its inception in 1995, announced in the elegant Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, “CICC has been a microcosm of China itself,” says Fraser Howie, a former CICC employee who is now an analyst for CLSA, the regional stockbrokerage. “It is a lens through which to view the country” – a country where it is seldom possible to separate the commercial from the political.

在中国逐渐告别共产党控制一切的时代之际，围绕中金的争执反映出中国传统价值的韧力——如政府关系至关重要，尽管它也表现出资本主义的一面，但它巧妙地运用复杂融资，有时还是用来针对其外国合作伙伴。朱云来和其他人的关系网，帮助中金强大起来，而这些关系现在正成为摩根士丹利面临的阻碍。
As China moves away from the era when the Communist party controlled everything, the wrangle over the company reflects the endurance of old Chinese values – such as the critical importance of official connections – even as it shows a capitalist face where high finance has been adopted with such dexterity that its practices are sometimes used against international partners. Connections from Mr Zhu and others helped make CICC powerful and those connections are now helping to stymie Morgan Stanley.

在中金成立之初，摩根士丹利的高管十分高兴。在帮助中国企业在当地上市方面，中金当时几乎享有垄断地位，这使摩根士丹利获得了相对于其它外国竞争对手的优势。中方，即当时王岐山领导下的中国建设银行（王岐山如今担任主管中国金融服务业的副总理）也同样高兴，因为建行也获得了相对于其银行业竞争对手的类似优势。中金其它合作伙伴包括新加坡政府投资公司 (Government of Singapore Investment Corp)和香港地产大亨查懋声(Payson Cha)。
When CICC was formed, the Wall Street bank's leaders were exultant. CICC had a virtual monopoly on bringing Chinese companies to local stock markets, giving Morgan Stanley a boost over other foreign competitors. The Chinese side – China Construction Bank, then under Wang Qishan, who today is the powerful vice-premier in charge of financial services – was equally exultant, as CCB had scored a similar coup over its banking rivals. Other partners in the venture included the Government of Singapore Investment Corp and Payson Cha, a Hong Kong property tycoon.

在王岐山的引荐下，朱云来于1998年加盟中金，多年来一直保持低调。尽管在早期，摩根士丹利方面为中金引进高管，但后来形成了一个非正式的管理层，它越过了摩根士丹利，直接由朱云来控制。在今年1月份的董事会召开前，中金管理层几乎完全由中方控制。随着时间的推移，中方管理层逐渐积累了大约20%的股权。
Mr Zhu joined CICC in 1998, brought in by Mr Wang, and for years maintained a low profile. But while in its early days Morgan Stanley provided the joint venture's top executives, an informal line of control developed that bypassed them and led straight to Mr Zhu. By the time the January board meeting came round, top management of CICC was all but entirely in Chinese hands. Over time, the Chinese management had built up a stake of about 20 per cent.

他们都得到了不错的报偿：在前面提到的20%股权中，朱云来持有多少尚属未知。但据悉，去年他赚了1700万美元，高于前年的1000万美元。相比之下，中国高层政府官员每年薪酬只有区区1万美元。中国知名本土券商中信证券(Citic Securities)董事长王东明的收入，也远低于100万美元。
They were well compensated: how much of that 20 per cent is owned by Mr Zhu is not clear but he is understood last year to have made $17m, up from $10m the year before. By comparison, senior government officials in China earn as little as $10,000 year. Wang Dongming, chairman of Citic Securities, a prominent local stockbroker, receives well under $1m.

在素可泰酒店召开的董事会上，中金管理层利用摩根士丹利希望退出中金之机，要求获得更多股份，以提高持股比例。几位与会者表示，朱云来在会上保持沉默，但董事李弘(Susan Li)提出了一项股权激励计划。她警告，如果该计划得不到董事会的批准，可能导致大批高管离职。
At the board meeting in Bangkok, capitalizing on Morgan Stanley's wish to exit the venture, management of CICC demanded more shares to increase its stake. While Mr Zhu kept quiet, Susan Li, a director, presented an equity incentive plan, according to several participants. Failure by the board to endorse the plan would lead to a wave of senior defections, she warned.

在她发言后，中金投资银行部门主管丁玮激动地指出，中金是建立在管理层的血汗之上的。与会者表示，丁玮尖锐地问道，至于公司所有者，“他们为中金做了什么？”此言激怒了香港股东查懋声。
Her presentation was followed by an impassioned plea from Ding Wei, the head of CICC's investment banking division, noting that CICC was built from the blood and sweat of management. As for the owners, “what have they done for CICC?” Mr Ding asked pointedly, these people say. Mr Cha, the Hong Kong shareholder, was enraged.

就摩根士丹利出售中金股权的努力而言，中金管理层的要求不是个好兆头。摩根士丹利一直在与一些希望收购其所持中金股权的美国私人股本公司进行谈判，其中包括贝恩资本(Bain Capital)、凯雷(Carlyle)、CV Starr、JC Flowers和TPG。一位考虑收购中金这部分股权的私人股本公司负责人表示，这些潜在买家在担心“中金是个好公司，但里面存在着一些泡沫”。中国内地股市曾大幅飙升，但已经开始下跌，这些收购集团都不希望支付最高水平的价格。如今他们还担心，任何买家都将面对股权立即被稀释的危险。
Management's demands did not bode well for Morgan Stanley's efforts to shed CICC. The investment bank had been in talks with a number of US private equity firms interested in taking over its stake, including Bain Capital, Carlyle, CV Starr, JC Flowers and TPG. The potential buyers were already concerned that “CICC was a good company but there was a bit of a bubble”, according to the head of one private equity house that looked at CICC. The stock market had soared but was beginning a descent and none of the buy-out groups wanted to pay peak prices. Now there was the added concern that any purchaser would face immediate dilution.

朱云来和中金管理团队也向潜在买家表达自己的要求，不过方式更为委婉。在与其中一个买家谈判时，朱云来阐明了他的看法：在大多数经纪公司，半数股权由管理层持有，同时50%的收入作为薪酬。这个第二位潜在买家回忆道：“他表示，这是该行业通常的运作方式，有鉴于此，让我们谈一谈合理的方案，因为20%的比例过低。”
Mr Zhu and the management team at CICC were also voicing their demands to potential buyers, though more obliquely. In talks with one, Mr Zhu enunciated his understanding that in most brokerages, half the shares are owned by management and 50 per cent of revenue also goes in compensation. “He said, this is how the industry works normally and in light of that, let's talk about a reasonable package because 20 per cent is too low,” this second potential buyer recalls.

这位买家补充道，作为尽职调查程序的一部分，当他所供职的集团与中金管理层会面时，在原计划的四小时时间内，（中金）管理层花费了一个多小时，来陈述他们提高股权比例的要求。
When the buyer's group met management as part of its due diligence, managers spent more than an hour of the scheduled four hours expressing their demand for more ownership, this person adds.

除了要求得到更多股权以外，中金的高管还表示，他们希望与至少一家本土券商合并，同时称，马上上市可能是个难题。第二位潜在买家表示：“他们希望达成另一笔交易，这样一来薪酬在收入中所占的比例将会降低。”
In addition to their demand for more equity, CICC top executives also said they would like to merge with at least one more local brokerage firm and suggested that going public any time soon would be a problem. “They wanted to do another deal so compensation as a percentage of revenue would be lower,” the second potential buyer says.

在得知管理层不愿上市后，一家初期参与竞购的公司退出了竞争。私人股本公司很少在没有明确退出方案的情况下进行投资，而最明显的退出方案就是将中金上市。
Learning that management was reluctant to list led one early bidder to drop out of the auction. Private equity firms rarely make investments without a clear exit plan and the most obvious would be to take CICC public.

摩根士丹利通过这些股权筹资10亿美元的希望似乎落空了。以朱云来为首的管理层拥有相当大的议价能力，这不仅仅是因为只有出售了这些股权，摩根士丹利才能在中国采取新的行动。此外，正是朱云来的关系，使得中金公司如此值钱。
Morgan Stanley's hopes of raising $1bn for its stake appeared to be dashed. Management led by Mr Zhu had considerable leverage, not least because Morgan Stanley could not undertake new initiatives in China until it shed the holding. In addition, it was Mr Zhu's connections that made the company so valuable.

代表第二家私人股本公司了解中金的合伙人表示：“中金是一招鲜。”这一招就是将国有企业上市。要想赢得这些企业的承销及保荐委托，最重要的是与关键的政府及党内官员建立关系——而朱云来拥有大量的此类关系。一位中金前员工表示：“他去见省领导人时，见的是曾为他父亲工作过的官员。他是靠着父荫赚钱的。”
“It is a one-trick pony,” the partner looking at CICC on behalf of the second private equity firm says. That one trick consists of listing state enterprises. To win the mandate for these, the most important requirement is to have relationships with key government and party officials – something that Mr Zhu has in abundance. “When he meets provincial governors, he is meeting officials who worked for his father,” says one former CICC staffer. He has monetized his father's career.”

无可否认，朱云来建立了一项业务，并为包括摩根士丹利在内的股东赚到了钱。摩根士丹利的初始投资为3500万美元，现在至少增长两倍，获得了丰厚的回报。朱云来不仅能赢得授权，还知道如何行使这些权力。对如何从国有企业僵死的躯壳中缔造出赢利的公司，朱云来已是一个专家。
Yet Mr Zhu has undeniably built a business and made money for his shareholders, including Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley has already made a healthy return on its $35m initial investment, at least tripling its money. He not only wins mandates but knows how to execute them. He has become expert at the complicated carve-outs that hack profitable companies out of the carcasses of state-owned enterprises.

“他在这个体系中玩得转，”朱云来一位前下属表示。“如果说这种情况不公平，那是因为这个体系不公平。”
“He works the system,” says the former staffer of Mr Zhu. “If the situation is unfair, it is the unfairness of the system.”

谁在为黄光裕出事鼓掌？

英国《金融时报》中文网特约撰稿人孙保罗 2008-12-02


“每次精英中的某个人出了丑闻，都会引发一次小小的狂欢” —— 这是社会学家孙立平在描述中国的公众自发地对所谓精英阶层充满蔑视甚至可以说是仇恨的现象的表述。

黄光裕，作为被机构评选出来的大陆首富，怎么说也算得上一个经济精英人物。

从他的履历表上，大家可以看到一个平民，在个体充分的投入和努力的基础上，把握住中国改革开放30年来所形成的市场经济的各种机会，能够创造的奇迹。当然，这种奇迹带有很多神秘的色彩，媒体在解读他的创业历史时候，也有了“神秘的第一桶金”这样的标题。

只是这种传奇，能否转化为尊重和认同？在这个故事里，除了关于一个富豪的骄奢淫逸的畅想外，还有什么东西可以用来证实，黄光裕们的存在，是中国社会进步的一种推动力量？

王小东先生在他的文章《中国精英的衰败与重生》一文中指出：在今天的公众舆论中，精英的个人品德不被认可，精英的智慧和能力也不被认可：政治精英的总体形象是腐败加无能，经济精英的形象是为富不仁加粗俗，思想精英的形象与政治精英类似，也是腐败加低能。

且不说粗俗，我们还可以理解为，承担原始积累的第一代创业者，由于生存和竞争环境落下的“心理残疾”——扭曲的发家历史，使得他们身上的某些缺陷，特别是群体性地表现在欲壑难填，缺乏责任感。

但为富不仁，则体现了他们身上的一种本质的冲突，人格的沦陷，行为的失控，信念的堕落。这为富和不仁之间，某种意义上说，是制度性的后果。

这从人们对社会精英的那种态度和逻辑可以看出人们对精英群体的根本不信任。

黄光裕从法理上说，还只是被警方带走协助调查，如果被立案，充其量暂时还是个犯罪嫌疑人，如果没有立案，连犯罪嫌疑人都不是。

但公众在网络传播这则消息，则用了另外一个值得玩味的词汇——出事了。“黄光裕出事了”。所谓“出事”，其实更多是“终于东窗事发”的意思。这是一种民间逻辑——某人飞黄腾达，但是肯定有什么问题，如今终于“在江湖上混，迟早要还的”，应了因果报应那句老话。这种逻辑，是民众的那种压抑的情感希望得以舒张的后果。

其实还有一个流行于中国商圈和媒体的更加值得玩味的词汇，似乎深刻地反映出一种中国的精英，特别是经济精英的生存现状，那就是“原罪”。早期“原罪”，这些企业家某种意义是被人“逼良为娼”，官员腐败，权利寻租，是我们国家的市场经济的一个不存在争议的现状。企业经常被当权者，例如把有行业资格审批权限、项目审批权限、政策解释权限等等的那些官员，强行寻租。如果企业不服从于潜规则，那么他们的企业的发展将面临复杂的生存环境的压力。

中国一些企业逐步做大的过程中，企业家开始与官员建立了长期稳定的相互“绑定”的合作关系，双方形成了利益共同体。这些企业，具有了相当的经济实力，特别是有了IPO的机会和可能，对于官员，由一种简单的寻租，也升级为一种“机会投资”。官员手中的权力以及在政界的关系网，作为一种可以直接兑现为商业利益的“强势资源”被纳入合作中，社会上已经对“代持股份”不陌生了，那些在股东会议上永远不出现的人，却是这些企业重大利益的实际拥有者。.

这种关系，是一种紧密的利益关系，但也是一种危险的关系。在超越法律的灰色地带运作，都会在“出事后”如何摆脱干系的问题上相互倾轧。中国政府每查处一个高级别贪官，都会挖出“窝案”，窝案的破获也往往是“狗咬狗，两嘴毛”的后果。这个窝字，解读了这些企业家与贪腐官员的关系——“一丘之貉”，同“窝”异梦。

不过也有人把这种“官商团队”，故意显摆昭彰，直接结寨升旗，成为“地方豪强”。如一家大型民企，有数十人前任的政府官员，涉及行政、司法等系统，成为了企业的“智囊团”。这个智囊团，因其个体的影响力和手里的政府关系网，对地方政府的行政和司法有了深度干预的能力，显示出割据势力的态势。

我想到了这个层面，已经是一种难以摆脱的相互绑架关系，企业家想要摆脱，已经是很难了。那也是一种“投名状”，与荣俱荣，与毁尽毁。企业家变质为寄生在政经体系上的超级血管瘤的那层皮。这种“病变”是国人应该高度警惕的。

中国最大的富豪出事了，谁在为之欢呼？

从一种社会公正的角度，似乎所有人都该鼓掌。尽管调查结果还没有公布，黄光裕的事情还没有定案，他身上的“原罪”以及现行的违法程度，我们还无法确认。但我们得反思一个大型企业的领袖出事的代价。

要知道，一个企业家的倒掉，和一个官员的倒掉，社会承担的后果是不一样的。中国不缺少官员，但缺乏好的企业家。行业的领军人物的倒掉，如果导致企业的发展出现巨大的挫折，那么这种失败导致对经济和社会的影响，更为深远和实际。比如，这些大型企业的大量上游和下游合作企业，以及这些企业数千甚至数万员工的家庭，都要为这种“原罪”买单。

记得中国政府治理官员腐败，曾经有“限期坦白”的做法。官员在某个期限前，主动坦白，并上缴非法所得，可以从轻处理。我想这个方法，对那些被逼行贿的企业家，是可以考虑的，他们的陈情，也就是一次举报，政府可以获得更加直接的证据来收拾那些腐败官员，打破恶性循环的链条。

而在中国政府实施更加有力的反腐措施，改善执政的透明度和监督的情况下，有没有可能有一种“赦免”，法律上的和道德上的赦免，让那些“问题还不是特别严重的”企业家可以放下原罪的包袱，摆脱权利的绑架，“重新做人”，以把企业做成中国经济版图上的优质企业，并重新承担起经济精英对社会所承担的义务和责任来重新树立经济精英在中国社会中的定义？

带着原罪阴影的中国的经济精英，无论是不是国美的竞争对手，都该为此为镜，以冷水洗头，彻底反思。手掌不该用于幸灾乐祸，而是该重重打在自己的脸上。与鼓掌发出的是类似的声音，但意义完全不同。

新闻人物：黄光裕 / MAN IN THE NEWS: HUANG GUANGYU

作者：英国《金融时报》杰夫·代尔(Geoff Dyer)、吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini) 2008-12-02 选


致富光荣，邓小平曾经这样告诉中国。但也许不要太富。
To get rich is glorious, Deng Xiaoping once told China. But maybe not too rich.

黄光裕是中国最富有的人，他创立的国美(Gome)电器零售连锁店已经使他的财富增长到63亿美元。不过，过去一周他却一直没有露面。由于整个北京城到处都是黄光裕被拘的传言，而国美高管又无法解释他的下落，国美股票于上周一停牌。直到上周五晚，官方才首次透露该案细节——一份两行字的声明，称黄光裕涉嫌操纵与国美有关联的两家小公司的股价。
Huang Guangyu is the wealthiest person in the country, having built up a fortune of $6.3bn (€5bn, £4.1bn) from the Gome electronics retail chain he founded. Yet for the past week he has been missing. Gome suspended its shares on Monday as rumours of Mr Huang's arrest swirled around the capital and company officials could not explain his whereabouts. Only late on Friday evening did the authorities give the first details about the case – a two-line statement saying Mr Huang was suspected of manipulating the share price of two small companies with links to Gome.

黄光裕失踪之谜反映出中国法治的不足。中国推动市场改革已有30年，但政治关系和个人恩怨仍然常常被置于法律程序之上。它还暴露出现代中国人对财富和商业的复杂态度——人们崇拜中国新富们的活力，但在社会不平等日益扩大时，又会对他们产生怀疑。
The mystery of his disappearance does not reflect well on the rule of law in a country that has promoted market reforms for 30 years but where political connections and personal feuds still often trump legal due process. It has also exposed the complex attitude to wealth and business in modern China where the new rich are lionised for their dynamism but are also considered suspect at a time when social inequality is widening.

在这个充满了一夜暴富故事的国度，黄光裕的故事是最不寻常的之一。他出生在东南沿海城市汕头附近一个种水稻的小村庄，家里非常穷，甚至连村里的其他孩子都会嘲笑他。信奉天主教的父母讲述的关于《圣经》和在亚洲各地经商的祖辈们的故事使他受到了鼓舞。
In a country where tales of overnight fortunes abound, Mr Huang's story is one of the most remarkable. Born in a small rice-farming village near Shantou on the south-east coast, his family was so poor that even the other village kids would tease him. He was buoyed by stories from his Catholic parents about the Bible and about ancestors who had been traders throughout Asia.

16岁辍学后，他和哥哥带了几袋收音机和电池到中国北部边疆内蒙古做生意，随身只带了4000元人民币（当时约合300美元）。他们从那里来到北京，在天安门广场旁边摆了一个售货摊。当时，占据中国电器市场的是定量配给券和无数政府中间商。但黄光裕（他的粤语名字是Wong Kwong Yu）展现出了资本家的本能，他直接从广东家乡的工厂进货，然后在北京出售。
After dropping out of school at 16, he and his brother went to Inner Mongolia in the far north taking with them a few bags of radios and batteries to sell and just Rmb4,000 (about $300 at the time). From there they went to Beijing, setting up a stall near Tiananmen Square. At that time, the electronics market was dominated by ration coupons and a myriad of government middle-men. But Mr Huang (who is also known by the Cantonese version of his name, Wong Kwong Yu) showed his capitalist instincts by buying goods directly from the new factories in his Guangdong hometown and selling them in Beijing.

过去10年，国美一直处于中国经济最有利的位置。中国最近的增长主要来自高层住宅的激增，数千万中国中产阶级在国美商店为自己的新家购置电冰箱、洗衣机和电视。
For the past decade, Gome [pronounced Guo Mei] has been at the sweet spot of the Chinese economy. Much of the recent growth has come from the explosion of high-rise apartment buildings; and tens of millions of middle-class Chinese purchased the refrigerators, washing machines and televisions for their new homes in Gome stores.

现年39岁的黄光裕还成功做到了两件事，这在同代中国企业家中颇为少见。首先，他打造了一个得到广泛认可的品牌。在中国城市，红蓝相间的国美标识与麦当劳(McDonald)或耐克(Nike)一样与众不同，而且比它们更加常见。
Mr Huang, now 39, has also pulled off two tricks that only a few Chinese entrepreneurs of his generation have managed. First, he has built a widely recognised brand. In Chinese cities, the red and blue Gome logo is as distinctive and more common a sight than McDonald's or Nike.

尽管中国许多行业的特色都是数百家小公司在竞争，但黄光裕对电子电器零售行业进行了整合，收购了排名第三和第四的公司以及两家手机零售商。他的开拓性战略，应该收进哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School)的案例研究。
While many industries in China feature competition between hundreds of small companies, Mr Huang has consolidated the electronics and appliances retail sector, acquiring the number three and four companies, as well as two mobile-phone retailers. His pioneering strategy merited a Harvard Business School case study.

1300家门店的规模赋予了国美减价和与供应商协商更苛刻条件（黄光裕被称作“价格屠夫”）的优势，同时增加了美国百思买(Best Buy)在中国立足的难度。黄光裕在失踪10天前接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“美国的销售模式不是很适合中国市场，因此我们不认为百思买是一个大的威胁。”他迟到了70分钟，但看上去很放松。
The scale that comes from 1,300 stores has allowed Gome to negotiate tougher terms with suppliers and to cut prices (he is known as the “price butcher”). It also made it harder for Best Buy to get a foothold in the Chinese market. “The US sales model does not fit the Chinese market well, so we do not see Best Buy as a big threat,” he said in an interview with the FT only 10 days before his disappearance. He was an hour and 10 minutes late, but seemed relaxed.

不过，随着中国经济放缓，投资者开始质疑黄光裕的模式。国美拥有大量来自供应商的短期信贷，而这种信贷正变得越来越稀缺。房地产市场滑坡打击了公司销售额，国美股价今年已下跌77%。
Yet as the Chinese economy slows, investors have begun to question the model. Gome has large amounts of short-term credit from suppliers, which is becoming scarcer. The housing slump is hitting sales and Gome's shares have already fallen 77 per cent this year.

黄光裕的故事在中国家喻户晓，但他一直比较低调。他几年前接受英国《金融时报》采访时曾表示，除了工作及在家陪妻子和两个女儿看电视，他很少干别的。他住在北京东郊一个叫做北京高尔夫公寓(Beijing Golf Palace)的普通住宅区内，但他实际上并不打高尔夫。
Mr Huang's story is well-known in China but he keeps a relatively low-profile. In an interview with the FT several years ago, he said he did little but work and watch television at home with his wife and two daughters. He lives in a nondescript housing complex called Beijing Golf Palace in the city's eastern suburbs but does not actually play golf.

从外表上看，黄光裕是一个说话温和、抽烟不断的人。他不说行话，但给人的印象却是非常聪明、警觉，对于自己对中国市场的见解非常自信。许多人现在提出，中国消费者将开始大量借贷，尤其是在农村地区，他对此不以为然。他说：“中国的老百姓就是对大量借债感到不舒服。”
In person, Mr Huang speaks softly and chain-smokes. He shuns jargon, but comes across as very smart, alert and deeply confident about his understanding of the Chinese market, sneering at suggestions – quite common at the moment – that Chinese consumers are going to start taking on a lot of credit, especially in rural areas. “Ordinary people in China simply do not feel comfortable borrowing a lot of money,” he said.


他非常喜欢金色领带，头发总是整洁地往后梳（除了去年有一段时间剃了光头外），不过，他的一位前助理表示，黄光裕不愿在公众场合露面，因为他对自己缺乏正式教育感到难为情。与中国的许多商人不同，黄光裕没有加入中国共产党或中国政体中的其它团体。他曾经告诉英国《金融时报》：“即使我想入党，我认为自己也不合格，因为我是一个天主教徒。我的家庭有长期的天主教传统，已经有好几代了。”
He has a penchant for gold ties and slicks his hair back (except for a period last year when he shaved it off completely), but one former associate says he avoids public appearances because he is self-conscious about his lack of formal education. Unlike many of his business peers, Mr Huang has not joined the Chinese Communist party or other parts of the political establishment. “Even if I wanted to join the party, I do not think I would be qualified because I am a Catholic,” he once told the FT. “My family has a long Catholic tradition which dates back generations.”

黄光裕到底在多大程度上是一个政治局外人，已变成一个重要问题。如今的中国人谈论“原罪”，尽管并不是以天主教徒所熟悉的方式。人们普遍认为，任何一个成功的商业人士，都必定在某个阶段“走过捷径”。许多商业人士建立了深厚的政治关系网，以防他们早期的交易遭到调查。一位长期观察中国政治体系的人士表示：“由于几乎每个有钱有权的人都有一些事情需要隐瞒，因此腐败调查在很大程度上是一种政治斗争的形式。”
Just how much of a political outsider Mr Huang really is has become an important issue. Chinese today talk about “original sin”, although not in a way familiar to Catholics. It is the widely held belief that anyone successful in business must at some stage have cut corners. Many business people build up deep networks of political contacts to prevent their early deals from being probed. “Since almost every rich and powerful person has something to hide, corruption investigations are largely a form of political struggle,” says one long-time observer of the Chinese political system.

黄光裕因操纵股价而被追查的消息，将令围绕其案件蓄积的紧张情绪得到一定程度的缓解，尤其是考虑到政府已将打击内幕交易列为优先解决的问题。不过，目前还没有他身在何处或是否已被正式逮捕的确切消息。中国最大公司之一的董事局主席和主要股东就这么不见了。
The news that Mr Huang is being pursued for manipulating share prices will ease some of the tension that has built up over his case, especially given that the authorities have made attacking insider trading a priority. Yet there is still no concrete information about where he is or if he has been formally arrested. The chairman and main shareholder of one of China's biggest companies has simply disappeared.

尽管产权受到了更多保护，但中国商人们还在抱怨自己在法律上的脆弱性。经济放缓加剧了这种担忧。如果黄光裕被提起公诉，政府需要证明他滥用自己的地位，而不是在其仇人的指使下才找他的麻烦。这将是对中国法律制度的一次重大可信度考验。
While property rights have been given greater protection, businessmen complain about their legal vulnerability. The slowdown has aggravated those concerns. If Mr Huang is prosecuted, the authorities will need to prove he abused his status and is not being pursued at the behest of his enemies. It will be a big credibility test for the legal system.

分析：中国富豪风险多 / Gome affair shows risks of wealth

作者：英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔(Geoff Dyer)和吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini) 2008-11-26

在中国，没几个商人比国美电器(Gome electronics)创始人及董事长黄光裕更加惹人注目。
There are few business people in China with higher profile than Huang Guangyu, founder and chairman of the Gome electronics retail chain.

10月，黄光裕以63亿美元的净资产，被《胡润百富榜》(Hurun Report)评为中国首富，这是现年39岁的黄光裕第三次荣登榜首。《胡润百富榜》对中国最富有的个人进行排名。
In October, Mr Huang was named as the richest person in China, with a net worth of $6.3bn according to the Hurun Report, which compiles lists of the country's wealthy. It was the third time that the 39-year-old had topped the ranking.

两周前接受采访时，黄光裕对于国美不远的将来表现得较为乐观，尽管投资者对于中国经济不断放缓和该公司紧张的财务状况感到忧虑。
In an interview two weeks ago, Mr Huang appeared up-beat about the immediate future for Gome, despite investor concerns about a slowing economy and the company's tight finances.

中国政府出台的财政刺激方案，包括为农民减税的言论，将对国美在农村地区的销售起到巨大的推动作用。他表示：“基本上我认为，这对于我们来说是个很好的消息。”
The Chinese government's fiscal stimulus package, which included talk of tax rebates for farmers, would provide a huge boost to Gome's sales in rural areas. “Basically I think it is very good news for us,” he said.

然而，目前国美的前景似乎远没有那么确定了。国美是中国最大的零售商之一，也是最大的家电销售商。
Yet the outlook for Gome, one of China's largest retailers and the largest seller of home appliances, now appears much less certain.

在国内媒体报道称，黄光裕因涉嫌另一家公司的股价操纵案而被拘后，国美股票停牌。黄光裕是国美的控股股东。
Shares in the company were suspended after local media reported Mr Huang, who is the controlling shareholder, had been arrested in connection to a probe into share price manipulation at another company.

国美发表声明称，没有接到黄光裕被拘的任何法律确认文件，不过一位官员承认，目前不能确定黄光裕的去向。
Gome released a statement saying it had not received any legal confirmation of Mr Huang's arrest, although an official admitted to being unsure of his whereabouts.


面对这样的不确定性，一些业内观察人士表示，黄光裕可能将很快重新现身。实际上，一家国内报纸昨日称，他已经在家中。
Amid such uncertainty, some industry watchers said Mr Huang could quickly re-appear. Indeed, one Chinese newspaper said yesterday that he was already at home.

然而，这一事件让人想到了中国错综复杂的政治和法律形势。中国尚未完成从中央计划经济向市场经济的过渡，成功的企业家们不得不在这种形势下谨慎行事。
However, the episode is a reminder of the complicated political and legal terrain that successful entrepreneurs have to navigate in a country where the transition from centrally planned to market economy has not been completed.

编制富豪榜的胡润(Rupert Hoogewerf)表示：“如果榜单上首富被捕的消息属实，那么这将在所有其他私人企业家中引起巨大反响。”
“If it is true the person who is number one on the rich list has been arrested, then it will have a lot of repercussions for all other private entrepreneurs,” says Rupert Hoogewerf, who compiles the Hurun list.

与十年前相比，私人财富现在不那么令人猜疑。那时许多中国民众认为，有钱的企业家是隐匿了 “原罪”——通常是侵吞国有资产，以及通过不正当手段或私人关系获得融资。
Private wealth is not considered as suspicious as it was a decade ago, when rich entrepreneurs were assumed by many people in China to be hiding an “original sin” – usually an appropriation of state assets, funding through irregular means, or personal connections.

私人企业发展迅猛，一些人估计，它们已经占到了国内生产总值(GDP)的一半以上。不过，企业家们仍抱怨称，如果公司发展得太大，他们很容易成为政治目标。
Private companies have expanded rapidly and under some estimates now account for more than half of gross domestic product. However, entrepreneurs still complain that they become an easy political target if their companies grow too big.

许多商人选择加入中国共产党，并通过疏通，成为与共产党有联系的知名团体的成员，使企业能够顺利发展。
Many business people have chosen to join the Communist party and lobby for membership of prestigious party-linked groups in order to smooth expansion.

胡润富豪榜上逾15%的富人都是全国人民代表大会(NPC)或中国人民政治协商会议(CPPCC)的成员。
More than 15 per cent of the people on the Hurun list are members of either the National People's Congress, the legislature, or the China People's Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body.


国美最大竞争对手苏宁电器(Suning chain)的总裁张进东，是中华全国工商业联合会(All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce)——中国共产党下属的企业家组织——副主席，同时也是中国政协委员。
The president of Gome's biggest rival, Zhang Jindong of the Suning chain, is vice-chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce – a party-affiliated group of industrialists – and a member of the CPPCC.

近10年前，当中国首个富豪榜发布时，上榜的多位知名人士很快发现自己受到了调查。
When the first rich lists were published in China nearly a decade ago, several names prominent in the rankings soon found themselves under investigation.

刘晓庆是第一批成为目标的新超级富豪之一，她是上世纪80年代一位著名女演员，后来投身房地产行业。
One of the first of the new super-rich to be targeted was Liu Xiaoqing, a prominent actress in the 1980s who then moved into real estate.

刘晓庆曾被称作是“亿万富姐”，直到她2002年在一场沸沸扬扬的偷税调查中被捕。
She was known as the “billionaire actress” until she was arrested in 2002 in a high-profile investigation into alleged tax evasion.

刘晓庆被拘押了420天，并被勒令补缴近300万美元的税款。
Ms Liu was detained for 420 days and was ordered to pay nearly $3m in back taxes.

两年前，中国当局也对黄光裕控制的一家投资公司进行了调查。
Two years ago, the Chinese authorities also launched a probe into an investment company controlled by Mr Huang.

当时，国内媒体报道称，黄光裕的哥哥黄俊钦也受到了调查。
At the time, local media reported that his brother Huang Junqin was also under investigation.

去年1月份，在宣布调查结束的当日，国美股价大涨12%。
Gome's shares soared 12 per cent one day in January last year when it announced that the investigation had been terminated.

小传：黄光裕的发家史 / The billionaire who started with a bag of radios

英国《金融时报》吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini)北京报道 2008-11-26

电器零售商国美(Gome)的创始人及董事局主席黄光裕于1969年出生在广东省汕头市的一个农民家庭，当时文化大革命(Cultural Revolution)正进行得如火如荼。

Huang Guangyu, founder and chairman of the Gome electronics retail business, was born to a peasant family in Shantou, Guangdong province, in 1969 at the height of the Cultural Revolution.

传闻称，他16岁时就辍学和哥哥来到了北京，他们带了一袋子的收音机、电池和其他小器具来卖。

Legend has it he dropped out of school at the age of 16 and moved to Beijing with his elder brother, bringing a bag of radios, batteries and other gadgets to sell.

在北京，他出售和修理廉价电器，最终将国美电器(Gome Electrical Appliances)打造成了一家拥有1300家门店、年销售额逾100亿美元的企业。
In Beijing he sold and repaired cheap electronics, eventually building Gome Electrical Appliances into a company with 1,300 outlets and annual sales of more than $10bn.

在此过程中，黄光裕成为中国靠自己力量成功的最年轻的亿万富翁。

In the process Mr Huang became China's youngest self-made billionaire.

黄光裕的粤语名字念作Wong Kwong Yu，他较早涉足房地产投资，还与现在已不复存在的投行贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)联手创立了一只投资基金。

Mr Huang, who is also known by his Cantonese name Wong Kwong Yu, was an early investor in real estate and the founder of an investment fund with the now-defunct investment bank Bear Stearns.

黄光裕说话温和，门牙之间的齿缝很大。据《胡润百富榜》(Hurun Report)显示，黄光裕的个人财富为63亿美元，在5年内第三次成为中国首富。在《福布斯》杂志编制的另一份榜单上，黄光裕则以27亿美元的财富位居次席。

Soft-spoken and with a large gap between his front teeth, Mr Huang's personal wealth stands at $6.3bn, according to the Hurun Report rich list, making him the richest man in China for the third time in five years. Under a separate list compiled by Forbes magazine, Mr Huang was in second place with a fortune of $2.7bn.

两者之间的差异，反映出黄光裕的财产和其他资产的真实价值尚未公诸于众。

The discrepancy reflects the fact the real value of his property and other assets have not been made public.

大乱、大治与“大窒”

英国《金融时报》中文网专栏作家丁学良 2008-11-28


这些天来，国际社会极关注的，是中国官方媒体被允许报道“负面新闻”。而中国媒体似乎一点没让大家失望，马上就报道了甘肃陇南市11月17-18日的骚乱事件。不过，未出现在中国官方报道里、而由国际媒体披露的细节是：该地发生拆迁户上访演变成万人抗议，当地政府未及时出面协商解决问题，只得出动大批武警“镇乱”，造成100多人重伤，200多人被捕，据说有人死亡。

在这之前不久，则有关于江西、贵州等地性质类似、规模相当的骚乱事件报道。所有这类事件，皆触及中国治理的神经中枢：中国社会为何难以摆脱“乱—治—乱”的封闭性循环？我的观察是：要害在于在“大乱—大治”之后，插入了“大窒”。

1949年以前的百年中国，历经兵祸战乱；1949年后的中国，历经政治动荡。可以说，“大乱”是无论中国的官或民均深为恐惧的局面。只有毛泽东例外，他一生最大的自信就是，他想乱就乱、想治就治，从大乱到大治，均在掌控之下。

确实，中国在文革前的几次乱，都被毛控制下来了。但文革这场大乱，并未如他所愿那样收放自如，直到他驾崩时仍未停止。文革是毛一生中最有意搞起来、也是惟一没有被他控制住的一次大乱。邓小平从第一次复出到第二次复出，努力做的，就是将毛的“大乱”转向“大治”（即所谓的“安定团结”）。毛曾批评邓，安定团结不是不讲阶级斗争。1978年当邓成为中国事实上的最高领导者后，其政策的核心，就是要“大治”，他认定这乃是中国能否实现经济现代化的前提条件。

若将邓的治理目标放在中国充满动荡的近现代史上来考察，这一诉求无疑是合理的；若将其放在10年文革的背景上来考察，更显合理。邓当时为达到“大治”所采取的很多政策，符合国家的长期发展利益，也符合当时绝大多数百姓和官员的期待。在毛时代，中国各阶层都被折腾得太惨了。

邓小平当时采取的最重要的“大治”措施，是废除文革期间中国老百姓揭露批判官僚特权、贪污腐化也是互相攻击打"派战"的最基本手段——大字报、大辩论等“四大自由”。

任何一个合理的举措，只要把它推行过分，就会从正确迈向谬误。“好的最大敌人是最好”，我经常引用这句话。“好”是个相对概念，如果把好的东西推向极端，就会成为负面的东西了。

假如邓在取消文革时代的“四大自由”——它们既是老百姓发泄民愤的渠道，更是毛整肃对手的武器——的同时，能够以更大的力量来发展现代社会里民情、民怨、民意表达的合法渠道，如相对独立的司法系统和相对自由的媒体，那我们今天就可以讲，邓不单取得了终止大混乱的成就，也开辟了更先进的治理机制。在邓主政初期，对此并非全无考虑。他曾有过一些先进的设想，这方面最突出的体现，是1980年邓的《改革党和国家的领导制度》。

邓的这篇文章中有句名言：没有好的制度，任何人都可能做坏事。这个提法已接近于宪政思想的出发点，即制度的制衡远胜过领导者个人的道德素质。只要按照这条路走下去，可以说，中国很多的官僚特权和腐败，就会遇到有效的制度抗衡。可惜邓在这方面不坚定，本来是按照这个思路进行的1983年"整党"，很快遭遇一些当权者的抵制，那样下去，会伤害手握实权的既得利益者。因而这一理念非但没有持续下去，反而出现了针对彻底改革派的"清除精神污染运动"。


从那以后，邓越来越把稳定看作超越一切的治理目标，所有在他看来、或由告密者打小报告说是会“影响稳定”的改革做法，都被他制止或抛弃。邓的这个思想，在两次学潮后更成为一种迷信：不管用什么样的手段，只要能保持稳定，都是值得做的，而且要力排众议地做。这个思想后来更发展成1990年代的官方口号：稳定压倒一切。

稳定作为一个施政目标，并非中国所独有。问题出在“稳定压倒一切”。就像刚才提到的，把“好的”推向“最好”，就会出问题。当稳定可以“压倒一切”的时候，不管口号的提出者是何用心，哪怕出发点是好的，但在中国体制的现实条件之下，就会变成“权势压倒一切”。那样，对民间寻求正义的渠道，对无权势者抵制和抗议对他们的伤害并寻求补偿的行动，就能够无情压制。

于是，“稳定压倒一切”在众多场合，就成为权势者压倒受害者抗议的声音、压倒公众对受害者的同情和支持、压倒社会公正的上方宝剑。这方面可以举出成千上百的例子。多年来，“稳定压倒一切”成了地方上贪官污吏和与之勾结的恶势力——不管恶势力是来自经济领域还是社会层面——最重要的挡箭牌，成为他们自保的铜墙铁壁。

我说中国治理的非良性循环，要害就是在“大乱—大治”之后，插入了“大窒”：“稳定压倒一切”，就窒息了中国民间释放中小程度的怨忿不满、社会释放中小矛盾冲突、政府和民众之间释放中小紧张关系的通道。

所以，这个问题的悖论、或者说它的黑色幽默和悲剧在于，随着“稳定压倒一切”成为不可挑战的信条，成为施政的出发点和归宿，中国社会里的种种不满和诉求在找不到释放的常规渠道的时候，本来是中小程度的，往往演变成大的；本来是非暴力的，往往演变成暴力的；本来是小规模暴力的，往往变成大规模暴力的。可以举出好多例子，包括陇南事件、瓮安事件、杨佳事件等等。“稳定压倒一切”，使得很多原来可以通过独立司法渠道解决的社会矛盾和冲突淤积起来，累加成爆炸性的麻烦，酿造着部分人群的极端主义情绪。

回顾中国的改革30年，看看它从“大乱”到“大治”，再到“大窒”的过程，可以负责任地说，解开这个死结，是中国的治理走出非良性循环的唯一出路。在2000多年专制传统的背景下，中国的最高统治者，无论是皇帝、总统还是主席，都希望国家保持稳定，就连毛泽东那样喜欢“大乱”的人，也是希望通过大乱达到大治，目的还是求长期的稳定。

中国当今的领导者，或未来的领导者，要想使中国的发展不遭遇大的中断，避免中国社会里出现事与愿违的大混乱结果，就必须把“大窒”这个死结解开。惟有解开这个死结，中国才能在治理上，走出2000多年来的非良性循环。

FT社评/ FT Editorial ：奥运何须作假 / Olympic trickery

英国《金融时报》社评

体育比赛的乐趣在于什么事都可能发生。但对一个威权国家来说，这意味着主办体育比赛带有风险。于是，中国政府试图控制北京奥运每一个能想到的元素，还往往为此借助引人生疑的手段。

The joy of sporting contests is that anything can happen. When you are a totalitarian state, however, this makes it risky to host them. The Chinese government has responded by trying to control every conceivable element of the Olympics, often by rather dubious means.

奥运开幕式上迈向“鸟巢”体育场的一连串巨大焰火“脚印”镜头，令人惊叹，受到广泛报道。结果，那些“脚印”却是电脑生成的图像。现在我们知道，为什么请一位电影导演来策划开幕

式。

The stunning, widely used footage of firework “footprints” leading to the Olympic stadium during the opening ceremony was, it transpires, computer-generated. We now know why a film director was asked to run the event.

在奥运开幕式，看似演唱《歌唱祖国》的小女孩林妙可，实际上是在对着另一名小女孩的歌声假唱。由一名政治局委员参加的一次会议决定，尽管杨沛宜的歌声最美，但她的外形不够漂亮，不适合参加奥运开幕式。应该让她来演唱，但不能让她上台露相。

Lin Miaoke, the little girl who apparently sang the Chinese anthem, was in fact lip-synching to the voice of another little girl. A meeting involving a politburo member decided that although Yang Peiyi was the best singer, she was not pretty enough to take part in the ceremony. She should be heard, but not seen.

话说回来，在奥运比赛场内欢呼的观众，也是由政府用巴士送到各场馆的，他们配备了制造声势的道具，还换上了鲜艳的服装，以求改善场内沉闷的气氛。在某些情况下，真正的体育迷买不到门票，而场内坐着的则是被组织来的看客。

Then again, cheering crowds are being bused into stadia by the government, armed with noise-makers and decked in colourful attire to improve the leaden atmosphere inside. In some cases the visitors are taking the places of real fans, who have found themselves unable to buy tickets.

现实是，官员们试图纠正的瑕疵，其实根本就不是什么瑕疵。假如中国主办方没有出动直升机跟踪拍摄徐徐延伸的焰火齐放，没有人会提出抱怨。被开幕式淘汰、不能登场的小女孩也许有几颗不完美的牙齿，但小女孩通常都是这样的。我们也都知道，不是所有奥运比赛项目的门票都会售罄。

The reality is that the faults officials were trying to correct are not faults at all. No one would have complained that China had not followed its creeping barrage of fireworks with a helicopter. The little girl rejected as the face of the opening ceremony may have had imperfect teeth – but little girls usually do. And, we all know that not all Olympic sports are sell-outs.

当然，官方的执着注定是要失败的。女子10米气步枪比赛安排在首场举行，以求让中国赢得首枚金牌。但捷克运动员卡特琳·埃蒙斯(Katerina Emmons)夺得首金，还刷新了世界纪录，而中国运动员杜丽表现不佳。

Official obsessiveness was, of course, doomed to fail. The 10m air rifle competition was scheduled first so that China would win the first gold medal. But Katerina Emmons, a Czech, set a new world record and won while the Chinese competitor, Du Li, did rather badly.

外国公司往往抱怨中国假冒，但奥运赛事无需作假就足够壮观了。本届奥运会与其说宣示中国作为一个现代化、充满活力的国家已经成年，不如说有可能加深这样一种印象：即中国政府是由一批控制欲很强的人组成的。

Foreign companies often complain of Chinese counterfeiting, but the games are spectacular enough without fakery. Rather than announcing China's arrival as a modern, dynamic country, they risk reinforcing the view that the Beijing government is comprised of control-freaks

也许，2012伦敦奥运的主办方会受到这种作假的诱惑。对任何来不及完工的体育馆而言，可装上电脑生成的屋顶来打发电视观众。而数字化的开幕式，甚至有望胜过北京数以千计的鼓手、舞者，以及穿戴儒服的男子——找几百名莫里斯舞者可不够。但是，伦敦奥组委应当避开电脑。伦敦不需要提供壮观的场面，只需要略微提醒人们，奥运会只是一场体育比赛。

The London 2012 organisers may be tempted by this trickery. Any unfinished stadium could be fitted with a computer-generated roof for television viewers. A digital opening ceremony could even beat Beijing’s display of thousands of drummers, dancers and men dressed up as Confucius – a few hundred morris dancers will not suffice. But they should steer clear of computers. London does not need to offer grander spectacle, more a gentle reminder that it is all just a game.